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MARCH 21, 2022|NON-OBVIOUS THINKING


We All Suck At Guesstimating. Here's Why It Matters


Chart showing how badly Americans guess at basic statistics

A new poll revealed what you might already have assumed: Americans suck at guesstimating. Or perhaps you didn't assume that, which is kind of the point. Research shows that when asked a series of questions such as how many people have a college degree or what percentage of American households have an income over $25k, most people's answers are completely off.

This fact was the foundation of the brilliantly written book Factfulness that is a must read for anyone who wants to truly understand where our world is headed. This false assumption of knowledge creates many problems in the world, from division and misinformation to flawed decision-making.

How do we fix this? Stories like this help, because they remind us of something that another insightful book and blog has long used as its title: You Are Not So Smart.

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How It All Started

A Short Backstory Of This Blog

This is a blog about non-obvious ideas. Originally launched on the Typepad platform in 2005 as the Influential Marketing blog, the stories at first focused mainly on digital marketing while Rohit worked at Ogilvy Advertising. In 2015 Rohit officially rebranded to the Non-Obvious Insights Blog and published his WSJ bestseller Non-Obvious. For the past twenty one years, this blog has coined new terms, introduced future marketing practices and inspired the next generation of non-obvious thinkers and marketers.

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